US stocks are blown!

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US stocks are blown!
Views: 198  Update Date:Mar 09 , 2020
Affected by the plunge in oil prices and the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the three major US stock indexes opened sharply lower on Monday. At the opening, the Dow fell more than 1800 points, a drop of nearly 7%; the S & P 500 index fell nearly 7% at the beginning of the session, triggering the first layer of fuse mechanism, and suspended trading for 15 minutes. The Nasdaq fell nearly 600 points, a drop of 6.86%.

US stocks are blown!

The "black swan" flying out of the supply side of the crude oil market has really tossed the global financial market to a lesser degree, and the global stock market has suffered a "Black Monday". Investors are concerned about how long it will take toss?

Energy stocks tumble across the board

On the disk, energy stocks tumbled across the board, Chesapeake Energy plunged more than 30%, ConocoPhillips fell more than 26%, Exxon Mobil and Chevron fell more than 14%.

Large-scale technology stocks also fell across the board. Apple, Google's parent companies Alphaph, and Netflix fell more than 7%, and Tesla plunged more than 12%.

European stock markets have also suffered "blood loss", and the main benchmark stock indexes have continued to fall since they opened significantly lower. At 21:40 Beijing time, the British FTSE 100 index fell 7.95%, the French CAC40 index fell 8.61%, the German DAX30 index fell 8.46%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell more than 9%.

Oil prices continued to decline. During the Asian trading session on the 9th, New York oil prices fell more than 33% during the session, once hitting a low of 27.34 US dollars per barrel. Brent oil prices also fell more than 30% at one time, the lowest reported 31.02 US dollars. At 21:40 Beijing time on the 9th, the two international benchmark oil prices in New York and London both fell more than 21%.


At the same time, most of the LME metal plate fell. Among them, copper in the LME period fell nearly 2% and is currently reported at US $ 5,494 per ton; aluminum in the LME period fell 1.1% to US $ 1,667 per ton, and zinc in the LME period fell 2.22%.


US stocks are blown

Global financial markets encounter "Black Monday"

Stimulated by the "crash" decline in crude oil prices, global stock markets "fall".

In the Asia-Pacific market on the 9th, the Nikkei 225 Index closed down more than 1,000 points, a decline of more than 5%, the largest one-day drop since November 2016. The South Korean Composite Index closed down 4.19%, the lowest since August 2019.

The benchmark stock markets of the Philippines, Vietnam, and Australia all fell sharply.

Middle East stock markets have also plummeted. At 21:20 Beijing time, the Saudi stock market fell more than 9%, and Saudi Aramco's stock price fell 5.5% to 28.35 Saudi riyals. The IPO price of its 32 Saudi rials has fallen by nearly 11%. The DFM index in Dubai fell more than 8%, and the Cairo EGX30 index fell more than 7%.

In addition to the stock market, the bond market and the foreign exchange market have also shaken together. The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar in the Tokyo foreign exchange market sharply rose to the range of 1 US dollar to 101 yen, the highest level since November 2016.

Hedging asset prices have been rising all the way. The price of gold continued to rise, and the main contract for COMEX gold prices rose above the $ 1,700 mark. UBS expects the price of gold to rise to the range of 1,700 to 1,800 US dollars in the short term, and raises the gold price forecasts for June, September, and December to 1,700, 1,700, and 1,650 US dollars from 1,650, 1,600, and 1,600 US dollars, respectively.

The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which has a negative correlation with prices, continues to expand. At 2200 Beijing time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell below 0.40% and are now reported at 0.493%. The two-year Treasury yields are reported at 0.328%. It hit a low of 0.288% in the middle.

Faced with the huge fluctuations in financial markets, Zhao Yaoting, global market strategist at Invesco Asia Pacific (excluding Japan), said in an email to Shanghai Securities News that central banks around the world, led by the US Federal Reserve, have been implementing active loose monetary policies. There will be no turmoil in 2009.

On the stock market, Zhao Yaoting said that he continued to be optimistic about the stocks in China and emerging Asian markets. At present, China has gradually controlled the epidemic of the new crown pneumonia. Although the stock prices of the Chinese onshore market have rebounded recently, the valuation is still very attractive.

Under the UBS benchmark scenario, the institution expects mature and emerging market earnings to grow at low single digits and 10%, respectively. UBS continues to maintain its preference for emerging markets.

Short-term or volatile financial markets

Crude oil price war is imminent, what is the future trend of oil price?

Li Qiang, director of the New Lake Futures Research Institute, told the Shanghai Stock Exchange that the short-term trend of oil prices is still not optimistic, and whether a rebound inflection point will need to wait and see the situation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation. In addition, the OPEC + negotiations and other systemic risk events are Influence factors, investors need to pay close attention.

According to foreign media reports, according to the expectations of the international investment bank Goldman Sachs, with the outbreak of the oil price war between oil-producing nations, oil prices may fall another 43%.

After assessing the current supply and demand situation in the crude oil market, international agencies began to lower their oil price expectations. UBS cut the target prices of Brent crude oil futures in June, September and December from the original US $ 62, US $ 64, and US $ 64 to US $ 40, US $ 45, and US $ 50, respectively.

UBS also said that in the next few days to weeks, it does not rule out that Brent oil prices will fall further to $ 30 per barrel.

It seems that short-term financial markets are about to toss!

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